A Post About Ukrainian Politics

I'll be arriving in Ukraine during an interesting time. (Ah, that most flexible of adjectives.) Ukrainian presidential elections are on October 31st. The president who is elected this October will be the third president of Ukraine since it declared independence in August 1991. The current president, Leonid Kuchma, is at the end of his constitutionally approved two 5-year terms in office. Although a court ruled last December that he could run for a third term, Kuchma has decided not to--in the face of much international outcry, I believe. His approval ratings are only at 7%, according to one article I read in the Action Ukraine Report. Imagine--7%. That astounds me.

In any case, Kuchma has decided to back the current prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich. (Whom I believe he appointed, I should mention. See here for a brief rundown of Ukrainian government.) The popular presidential contender is Viktor Yushchenko, who has a reputation for fighting corruption, and who has promised to open Ukraine to the West. (Which means turning away from Russia.)

Now, most of what I've been reading has a decided pro-Western bias, but the Yushchenko-Yanucovych race sounds like a dirty fight for the future of Ukraine.

The current government is beyond heavy-handed in its support of Yanucovych. TV stations and newspapers that present a favorable (or even unbiased) view of Yushchenko are being shut down with the flimsiest of excuses. Rallies supporting Yushchenko are being disrupted; in at least one case, the military sent trucks to block roads into a city where a rally was being held, preventing supporters from participating. And Yushchenko's (state-provided) body guards recently caught a government-sponsored spy who had been trailing Yushchenko and recording his conversations with a long-distance mic.

Reading all this, I can't help but feeling vaguely shocked. It's all so...so...un-American. Part of me is stuttering, "But...but...but it's not fair." (To which my Mom-voice replies, "Well, Carrie, life isn't fair.")

According to the accounts I'm reading, Yushchenko will win if the elections are fair. He's leading by about 8 points, or something like that. However, it's highly unlikely that the elections will be fair, even with international observers watching the proceedings. I could give a great example using a recent mayor election in a small Ukrainian town, but then this post would just get too long. (See here if you're interested in all of this.)

So what happens if Yanukovych wins--which I think is likely? Probably very little, actually--Yanukovych will keep Ukraine in the economic and social slump it's been in. Corruption will continue unabated, or increase. Ties with Russia will strengthen, and ties with Europe will remain tentative.

Ukraine is seen by Western eyes as a buffer country, limiting the reach of Russia, and--by being independent--limiting her power. And if Yanukovych wins, it will be seen as proof for many that the Ukrainian government is hopelessly corrupted. I wonder what happens then?

I just finished reading Borderland, a history of Ukraine, and I'm feeling sentimental. I want Ukraine to establish its own identity, one that is not intrinsically linked to Russia. Half the country feels, is, Russian; I want them to be Ukrainian, to root for this new country they are a part of. And, like most Westerners I'm sure, I hope Ukraine turns westward. Somehow, I feel that turning politically east will endanger the Ukrainian identity, even though it has withstood centuries of subjegation.