A Post About Ukrainian Politics

I'll be arriving in Ukraine during an interesting time. (Ah, that most flexible of adjectives.) Ukrainian presidential elections are on October 31st. The president who is elected this October will be the third president of Ukraine since it declared independence in August 1991. The current president, Leonid Kuchma, is at the end of his constitutionally approved two 5-year terms in office. Although a court ruled last December that he could run for a third term, Kuchma has decided not to--in the face of much international outcry, I believe. His approval ratings are only at 7%, according to one article I read in the Action Ukraine Report. Imagine--7%. That astounds me.

In any case, Kuchma has decided to back the current prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich. (Whom I believe he appointed, I should mention. See here for a brief rundown of Ukrainian government.) The popular presidential contender is Viktor Yushchenko, who has a reputation for fighting corruption, and who has promised to open Ukraine to the West. (Which means turning away from Russia.)

Now, most of what I've been reading has a decided pro-Western bias, but the Yushchenko-Yanucovych race sounds like a dirty fight for the future of Ukraine.

The current government is beyond heavy-handed in its support of Yanucovych. TV stations and newspapers that present a favorable (or even unbiased) view of Yushchenko are being shut down with the flimsiest of excuses. Rallies supporting Yushchenko are being disrupted; in at least one case, the military sent trucks to block roads into a city where a rally was being held, preventing supporters from participating. And Yushchenko's (state-provided) body guards recently caught a government-sponsored spy who had been trailing Yushchenko and recording his conversations with a long-distance mic.

Reading all this, I can't help but feeling vaguely shocked. It's all so...so...un-American. Part of me is stuttering, "But...but...but it's not fair." (To which my Mom-voice replies, "Well, Carrie, life isn't fair.")

According to the accounts I'm reading, Yushchenko will win if the elections are fair. He's leading by about 8 points, or something like that. However, it's highly unlikely that the elections will be fair, even with international observers watching the proceedings. I could give a great example using a recent mayor election in a small Ukrainian town, but then this post would just get too long. (See here if you're interested in all of this.)

So what happens if Yanukovych wins--which I think is likely? Probably very little, actually--Yanukovych will keep Ukraine in the economic and social slump it's been in. Corruption will continue unabated, or increase. Ties with Russia will strengthen, and ties with Europe will remain tentative.

Ukraine is seen by Western eyes as a buffer country, limiting the reach of Russia, and--by being independent--limiting her power. And if Yanukovych wins, it will be seen as proof for many that the Ukrainian government is hopelessly corrupted. I wonder what happens then?

I just finished reading Borderland, a history of Ukraine, and I'm feeling sentimental. I want Ukraine to establish its own identity, one that is not intrinsically linked to Russia. Half the country feels, is, Russian; I want them to be Ukrainian, to root for this new country they are a part of. And, like most Westerners I'm sure, I hope Ukraine turns westward. Somehow, I feel that turning politically east will endanger the Ukrainian identity, even though it has withstood centuries of subjegation.

Kiev, or Kyiv?

There are two ways to spell Kiev, which I learned soon after I started reading up on Ukraine. I thought the difference was one of transliteration, with two different translation styles yielding different results. But no!

I recently signed up to receive the Action Ukraine Report, which is a sort of emailed newspaper, containing a lot of articles about Ukraine from a variety of news sources. At the bottom of the newsletter is this bit: "Kyiv vs. Kiev----SPELLING POLICY--Chornobyl vs.Chernobyl THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT uses the spelling KYIV (Ukrainian) rather than KIEV (Russian), whenever the spelling decision is under our control."

Well! Isn't that interesting?

On a more personal front, I'm coming up on the end of my employment. I have only a week and a half of work left (the work I get paid for, anyway). I'm trying to figure out fun stuff like voter registration and 401K rollovers and powers of attorney. I need to figure out when I'm going to find time to wash my car so I can take some pictures of it and put the For Sale signs in the window.

I also need to find time to go to the outlets in Gilroy to pick up a few things, and if anyone knows where I can find postcards of the San Jose area...let me know!

I had about a month of calm and waiting, but now it's over. There's so much to do.